The SPX finished the week strong after a squeeze higher into and after the Jobs report friday pushed stocks to close at all time highs. It was a sloppy week with alot more weakness in Nasdaq tech growth stocks and overall the QQQ Nasdaq closed red for the week so its been a stock picking market where the best trends exist in specific sectors outside of growth related names. The SPX has been coiling around 4175 for weeks now while it held the 21 ema as support last week so any early week continuation likely can push further and coincide with a gamma squeeze towards 4300. The expected move for the week implied by the options market is about 61 points on the SPX. That implies a range of 4167-4297. First support comes in at the 8 ema near 4193 and the 21 ema now at 4154. 50 day MA is 4033.
3 PEAKS MARKET SIGNALS OVERVIEW:
TREND- Strong bullish trend with EMA’s stacked positive.
CONDITION/BREADTH- Momentum slowing, RSI 66, Bollinger %B back over 100 showing a little overbought. New highs for Cumulative Breadth confirming rally.
SENTIMENT- Bullish but not overly complacent with 44.3% Bulls in this weeks AAII Investor sentiment survey. Up from 42.6% last week. Bears ticked down to 23.1%. Bulls/bears ratio at 1.92. Sentiment data is looked at as contrarian and Bullish signals occur when Bulls drop under 35%, or when Bears rise above 50%.
SPY sectors mostly all green strong bullish trends, only XLK Tech sector showing a weak bearish trend.
Advance Decline line increased this week and ended at new relative highs, confirming the new rally highs in SPX. Notice in past when this did not happen, the SPX was then at risk of a pullback but for now this market is strong.
New 52 week highs in the SPX hit 167 friday which looks like the highest number in last several years. Thats roughly 33% of the index hitting fresh yearly highs. Strong amount of holdings are participating in the move up which is positive.
Seasonality for 2nd week of May is a bit softer as it is the week prior to options expiration which comes next week. Looks like the seasonality has tended to show more weakness towards the end of the week, and at this point the SPX is likely due for a pullback by then if we begin the week green.
Individual Stocks of note:
Weekly inside candles- AEO, ALXN, AMGN, AZN, BAX, BMY, BSX, CME, CNP, CSX, EBAY, FB, GLW, GME, GOOG, HIG, HSBC, IBM, OSTK, SBUX, SCHW, VFC, VRTX, WY
8/21 EMA Daily Bull Cross- APG, AU, CARG, NWSA, HFC, WW, RDS/B, BTI, RDS/A, CPB, SCHO, EEM, SQM, GM, VGSH, APH, WDC, SRPT, SCCO, EWY, TNA, AMAT, PG, NKE, QCOM, APTV, MCK, AMGN, CMI, QQQ
Stocks in TTM Squeezes within 10% of 52 week highs: AMAT, BBY, CAG, CAT, CME, CNP, DE, DIS, DLTR, EA, EMR, EPD, EXPE, FLEX, GE, GLW, GM, HIG, HPE, HYG, IEF, IWM, JBL, JNK, KSS, LB, LEN, LQD, LRCX, LUV, MAR, MCD, MGM, OKE, PEP, RVLV, SBUX, SSO, TBT, TSN, UNP