Price action last week was a bit two sided but overall closed largely unchanged for the week and at the higher end of the range. As often is the case in uptrends, the dips get bought. After Thursday’s selloff failed and saw strength into Friday with strong confirming internals I would expect some early continuation this week before big tech earnings and the FOMC decision take more of a driver seat mid to late in the week.
Earnings releases this week will be a big story and some of the larger liquid names reporting are: TSLA, GOOG, MSFT, AMD, SPOT, PINS, V, BA, SBUX, AAPL, FB, GOOG, AMZN, TWTR
Weekly chart of SPY with 10 and 34 simple MA’s showing in dashed lines, and the 21 week EMA in blue. Definitely getting extended above upper Bollinger band. When this happens on a weekly chart its a warning but would still need price to confirm any reversals.
I always try to focus on 3 aspects of the current market, one being Trend, two being Condition or Breadth, and third being the Sentiment of the market. I think those 3 things in that order have helped me maintain a focused approach to trading over the years that helps keep me on the right side of the market.
3 PEAKS MARKET SIGNALS:
TREND - Strong bullish trend and Stacked EMA’s on both the short term daily and longer term weekly charts.
CONDITION/BREADTH - The SPY is extended and seeing multiple weekly candles close above the upper bollinger band is a sign of strength but at same time with RSI above 70 we can pullback at any time. NYSI Summation index is mixed but pointing up. Cumulative AD breadth is making new highs with the SPY as of the close Friday. New highs vs new lows differentials are still positive with the 10 and 30 day MA above zero since November.
SENTIMENT- Investor sentiment is getting pretty stretched and feels frothy again at times lately. AAII Bulls at 52.68 last week (over 55 has been associated with market peaks). AAII Bears at -20.5 last week was one of the lowest levels of bears all year.
SPY sector ETFs showing clear strong bullish trends in most all sectors except the XLE Energy ETF showing a weak bearish trend.
Seasonality for the final week of April is a bit mixed overall with strong tendencies midweek into Thursday, then quite bearish for the final day of April over the last 21 years of data the SPX has been up just 33.3% of years.
Individual Stocks of note:
Weekly inside candles- AMD, TSLA, NVDA, BYND, TLT, TDOC, DOCU, GS, CMCSA, ADBE, CSCO, TMO, UPS, NEE, LOW, GILD, DASH, BDX, ABB, PGR, TRP, YUM, LYFT, ZEN, NVAX, MOS
8/21 EMA Bull Cross- AMD, IWM, X, NCLH, KEY, TIGR, SCHW, ICLN, BILI, IJR, EBSB, ASHR, NLSN, JPST, DDOG, ENPH, MTCH, REAL, NOVA, XLNX, CREE, ZI, U, CROX, CUK, IWN, CVNA, KC, URBN, AAXJ